The Brief Special Edition: What Just Happened?

Hi friends,

Like me, you've probably had about a million news alerts since yesterday morning about President Trump’s social media posts and their significance for the ongoing conflict with Iran. I don’t want to contribute to that overload with this newsletter, but I do want to help you cut through the noise a little. Here are my main takeaways from the last 36 hours:

President Trump’s social media post was a threat of genocide…

The most quoted part of the president’s social media post threatening Iran was the first sentence, and for good reason: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” is extreme rhetoric, even for an already extreme administration. I want to be very clear that this statement is also a threat to commit genocide.

The U.S. is a party to the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which defines genocide as committing certain enumerated acts “with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such.” The listed acts include killing or causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of such a group. In addition to genocide, conspiracy to commit genocide, direct and public incitement to commit genocide, and complicity in genocide are also prohibited. In this case, the president's post states his clear intent to destroy an entire national group--here, the State of Iran.

..as well as a threat of further war crimes

We’ve already covered, in the context of Secretary Hegseth’s statements that the U.S. would give “no quarter” to Iran, that such statements are specifically prohibited by the Regulations Respecting the Laws and Customs of War on Land, as well as Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions. Additional Protocol I also provides, in article 51(2), that “The civilian population as such, as well as individual civilians, shall not be the object of attack. Acts or threats of violence the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population are prohibited.”

The same article also prohibits “indiscriminate attacks,” including those which are not directed at a specific military objective. The President's recent statements, combined with both threatened and actual attacks on civilian infrastructure, should be treated as further evidence of war crimes that are prohibited under both international and domestic law.

Pakistan reportedly brokered a ceasefire at the U.S.’s behest…

Shortly before President Trump’s “8pm Eastern” deadline last night, he announced a two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan. Terms purportedly include:

• Talks to begin on Friday in Pakistan;
• The U.S. will halt its military strikes on Iran;
• Iran will stop its retaliatory strikes in the region; and
• Iran will allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz, though it has also said that Iran and Oman will charge fees to any ships that cross the Strait.

Israel has stated that it endorses the ceasefire with Iran, but that it does not apply to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, or to Israel’s military actions in Lebanon. This is problematic, because now absolutely no one can agree on whether Lebanon was supposed to be included in the ceasefire in the first place. Which leads me to my next point:

..but the status of that ceasefire is now uncertain

As of the time of this writing, Israel’s attacks in Lebanon are continuing, which has led Iran to argue that by allowing those attacks to continue, the U.S. is not upholding its end of the ceasefire. Hezbollah is also continuing its attacks against Israel.

Like Iran, Pakistan states that Lebanon was supposed to be included in the ceasefire, which the U.S. disputes. Moreover, no oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began.

Iran and the U.S. also disagree on what is included in the framework that is meant to be the basis of Friday’s talks. They do not even agree on whether the framework has 10 or 15 points, which does not seem like a promising start.

What you can do

For those of you in the U.S. who are calling your senators and representatives, you can include the following:

• Ask them to support impeachment proceedings against the president, including for his statements calling for genocide and his involvement in war crimes. You can flag that in addition to violating domestic and international law, they also put U.S troops at risk by undermining the international humanitarian law framework meant to protect all parties to a conflict;
• Ask them to keep pushing for a resolution under the War Powers Act limiting further military action against Iran without congressional authorization;
• Tell them they must oppose President Trump’s request for $1.5 trillion in defense spending for FY27.

I’ll do my best to keep you posted as the situation continues to unfold. In the meantime, here’s what to watch out for as those news alerts continue to come in:

• Whether Israel and Hezbollah agree to participate in the ceasefire;
• Whether shipping resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, and what fees are assessed by Iran and Oman;
• Whether a version of the 10-point starting framework for negotiations is publicly agreed on by both Iran and the U.S.

And for those new to The Connection and wanting a deeper dive into the law of war, reminder that we have explainers on the law governing the decision to go to war (jus ad bellum), the law governing the conduct of war (jus in bello), and the legal protections for prisoners of war up on our site.

I'll see you back here soon.

Alexis

You can follow The Connection on Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Threads.